From the perspective of the fundamentals of rubber, rubber next year will experience a profit redistribution, the restructuring process. Now we know from rubber tires, downstream to the car, in the middle of import trade agent in the industry losses and inventory under the environment of high will therefore the main contradiction is still in the upstream production. Now, rubber overall is still oversupply, but also mainly concentrated in the upstream industry profits. Due to the rubber plant for a long time, let the farmers to make money to no profit to lose money, is the need to experience a process, can lead to a large area of cutting. And several rubber produce the standard of living is low, even if the glue price falls, the willingness to abandon cut is not strong. So far there is no evidence of production or production forecast. So in this background, want to let Shanghai glue falling to relatively difficult.

For the coming year to focus on the risk point, we considered a rubber farmers planting cost and the cost of imports cost, the rubber price is relatively low, if the next city again, to touch the bottom line rubber farmers, would likely cut down a tree, the supply and demand pattern of the rubber may be significantly changed; In addition, for the weather factor, the el nino's legacy may be in next year's two-thirds quarter, at the same time also is rubber usual hype the weather of the time, if coupled with the glue countries or some protective policy of domestic production, there may be a brief boost to glue price; Finally, also cannot ignore the influence of policy factors, except raw material purchase in Thailand in early 2015, there was no other purchase policy, whether there will be 2016 collection and storage, the size of this collection and storage, can affect the rubber. But from our collection and storage policy for normal statistics, 16 years is expected to purchase scale even though there are also too won't big, short after purchase, will not affect the overall pattern, rubber.

Taken together, is expected in 2016, the day rubber big probability to maintain the bottom price. At the end of the year to the beginning of the year, Thailand's production background, the rubber price is expected to continue to test, or will explore to cost area near 9000-10000 yuan/ton, and after the Spring Festival, if you have the weather factors or policy coordination, such as glue production countries abroad costs will rise against the background of the Thai baht 60 / kg, the corresponding domestic rubber price or have the possibility of up to 14000-14000 yuan/ton, focuses on the second half of the futures to inventory process, if the stock is still on the high side, or have to return to the second half of 11000 yuan/ton, near impossible.